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Key takeaways

Wells Fargo Investment Institute believes a global economic slowdown and moderate U.S. recession are likely in 2023, followed by a gradual U.S.-led recovery in 2024.

After contracting in 2023, we expect earnings to expand modestly in 2024 as the economy emerges from recession.

We favor U.S. Large-Cap over Mid-Cap and Small-Cap equities with a focus on quality and defensive positioning in sectors and sub-industries.

In fixed-income portfolio allocations, we favor remaining defensive with a barbell strategy that favors both short term and long term.
Top five portfolio ideas for 2023
Diversify internationally
Rebalance regional equity exposure
Our upgrade of Developed Market ex-U.S. Equities to neutral ends our tactical lean toward U.S. markets, away from other developed international markets. Our expectation that the U.S. dollar is likely to be flat-to-weaker should boost expected returns to non-U.S. assets.
Interest-rate normalization following a lengthy period of record-low yields has favored international value stocks that are generally less adversely affected by higher discount rates. In addition, international diversification should help hedge against the possibility of localized economic shocks.

Mind inconsistencies
Mind the inconsistencies
Inconsistencies between the Fed's stated policy to keep rates high versus market expectations for rate cuts, and between the actual earnings recession versus market expectations for earnings growth will likely create financial-market volatility as the markets eventually correct these contradictions and reset price levels.
In preparation for potential volatility ahead, we favor short-term fixed income over equity, especially the high-beta* areas of the equity markets like small caps and emerging markets.
*A high-beta equity is one that is more volatile than the rest of the market, which is often defined by proxy as the S&P 500 Index. High-beta equities can carry more risk of loss (compared to the S&P 500) as the economy goes from growth to recession, but potentially can generate higher returns as recession turns to recovery.

Build resilience
Build resilience with hedge-fund and private-capital strategies
While alternatives may enhance returns, these assets can also diversify risk during periods of rising interest rates and elevated inflation. Event Driven strategies focus on structured securities or idiosyncratic events. Global Macro and Relative Value hedge funds can achieve low correlations to traditional stock and bond markets by seeking to exploit mispricings driven by policy changes or fundamental dislocations. Other factors can enhance the defensive nature of these strategies. Stable cash flows support Relative Value during volatile times, while Global Macro strategies seek to capitalize on persistent price trends, whether in up or down markets.
Private capital strategies may capitalize on acquiring early-stage or financing mid-sized companies, providing opportunities for investors with long time horizons.

Consider commodities
Position for a rebound in commodities
Commodities have experienced a significant pullback coinciding with weakening economic data and leading indicators. The recent decline in prices is taking place within what we believe is a multi-year bull market — called a bull super-cycle — that began in March 2020.
Our research has found that the average bull super-cycle has lasted 17 years with periodic consolidations or pullbacks that can provide opportunities for investors to purchase commodity asset classes at more attractive prices. The recent drop in many raw materials prices may provide such an opportunity.

Use cash as a tool
Use cash as a tool, not a long-term investment
With cash yields at elevated levels and markets expected to experience continued volatility, investors may be pondering moving to cash in lieu of remaining invested. While this may sound like a “less risky” strategy on paper, using cash as an investment comes with its own risks — a major one being the cash performance drag as it tends to drastically underperform diversified allocations over long time periods.
Even over shorter time frames, the opportunity cost of holding too much cash can be high as we expect cash yields to decline from current levels coinciding with the Fed rate cuts in 2024.

Top five portfolio ideas for 2023
Asset class guidance
Economy
Late-cycle blues
We believe a global economic slowdown and moderate U.S. recession are likely in 2023, followed by a gradual U.S.-led recovery in 2024.
Our key economic forecast is for inflation to fall below 3% in 2023 and through 2024. Inflation peaked early in this economic cycle, responding to a reversal of pandemic-related shocks. Looking ahead, our forecast below 3% assumes another, more typical round of disinflation coinciding with the start of a recession later this year.
2023 targets |
2024 targets |
|
---|---|---|
U.S. GDP growth1 |
1.1% |
1.5% |
U.S. inflation2 |
2.9% |
2.8% |
U.S. unemployment rate3 |
4.4% |
4.9% |
Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute, as of June 13, 2023. Wells Fargo Investment Institute forecasts and targets. GDP = gross domestic product. Forecasts, targets, and estimates are based on certain assumptions and our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change. An index is not managed and not available for direct investment.
|
Fixed Income
Stay defensive while awaiting opportunity
We believe that the next six to 18 months will present fixed-income investors with two distinct environments, recession and recovery. Still, we envision positive fixed-income returns, for both taxable and municipals, through year-end, supported largely by the income component.
Looking into 2024, we believe the yield curve will regain a positive slope. We favor remaining defensive in fixed-income portfolio allocations with a barbell strategy that favors both short term and long term. For now, our guidance is for investors to stay up in credit quality.
Year-end 2023 targets |
Year-end 2024 targets |
|
---|---|---|
Federal funds rate |
5.25% – 5.50% |
3.75% – 4.00% |
10-year U.S. Treasury yield |
3.50% – 4.00% |
3.75% – 4.25% |
30-year U.S. Treasury yield |
3.50% – 4.00% |
4.00% – 4.50% |
Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute, June 13, 2023. Wells Fargo Investment Institute forecasts and targets. Forecasts, targets, and estimates are based on certain assumptions and our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change. An index is not managed and not available for direct investment. |
Equities
Stay defensive until recovery is in sight
After contracting in 2023, we expect earnings to expand modestly in 2024 as the economy emerges from recession. Valuations likely will rebound in 2024 to anticipate an earnings recovery.
As the economy weakens, our preference for quality and more defensive positioning in portfolios remains in effect. We maintain our preference for U.S. Large Cap Equities over U.S. Mid Cap Equities and U.S. Small Cap Equities. At the sector level, we prefer quality and defense as well. We hold favorable ratings on Materials, Health Care, and Energy, and unfavorable ratings on the highly cyclical Consumer Discretionary and interest-rate-sensitive Real Estate sectors.
We believe that important developments in 2023 will shape the long-term investment appeal of equities tied to regional banks and artificial intelligence.
Year-end 2023 targets |
Year-end 2024 targets |
|
---|---|---|
S&P 500 Index |
4000 – 4200 |
4600 – 4800 |
MSCI EAFE Index |
2000 – 2200 |
2300 – 2500 |
Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute, June 13, 2023. Wells Fargo Investment Institute forecasts and targets. Forecast and targets are based on certain assumptions and on our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Please see the end of this page for index definitions. |
Real assets
The pause before the move higher
Commodity bull super-cycles are multiyear periods in which commodity prices climb together, as a family. They are driven by persistent supply shortages, which require years of higher commodity prices to incentivize extra production. Prices do not typically shoot straight higher, however. Bulls often grind higher, with the occasional short-term price pause. We believe 2023 is one of those short-term price pauses, before a resumption of the bull, and higher prices through 2024.
We favor using 2023 commodity price weakness to position for a likely strong 2024. Precious metals are favorable, especially gold, but our preferred strategy for commodity allocation is a broad-based exposure that includes all sectors. Both public and private real estate offer selected intra-sector opportunities.
Year-end 2023 targets |
Year-end 2024 targets |
|
---|---|---|
West Texas Intermediate crude (barrel) |
$80 – $90 |
$90 – $110 |
Gold (troy ounce) |
$2100 – $2200 |
$2300 – $2400 |
Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute, June 13, 2023. Wells Fargo Investment Institute forecasts and targets. Forecasts, targets, and estimates are based on certain assumptions and our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change. An index is not managed and not available for direct investment. |
Alternative investments
Use alternatives to navigate challenging markets
Amid the backdrop of inflation, a weakening economy and rising interest rates, we favor alternative strategies that typically offer low correlation to traditional equity and fixed-income markets.
We believe hedge fund and private Distressed Credit strategies can potentially capitalize on recession-driven credit market stress. While Distressed Credit strategies can allow investors to remain opportunistic throughout the downturn, in general we remain focused on using alternative investments to diversify portfolios across market cycles.
Alternative investments are not appropriate for all investors and are only open to “accredited investors” or “qualified investors” within the meaning of the U.S. securities laws. They are speculative, highly illiquid, and designed for long-term investment and not as trading vehicles.
Asset class guidance

Wondering what to expect for the remainder of 2023?
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The full 2023 Midyear Outlook from Wells Fargo Investment Institute
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- Details on favored asset classes and sectors
- Deeper dives into market sectors
- More information to help guide your investment decisions
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Download the full reportGet more WFII research and analysisDefinitions
MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed, or produced by MSCI.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of 500 widely held common stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market.
Disclosures
Risk considerations
Forecasts, targets, and estimates are based on certain assumptions and our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change.
All investing involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. There can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. Investments fluctuate with changes in market and economic conditions and in different environments due to numerous factors, some of which may be unpredictable. Each asset class has its own risk and return characteristics. The level of risk associated with a particular investment or asset class generally correlates with the level of return the investment or asset class might achieve.
General market risks
Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile. A stock’s value may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. International investing has additional risks including those associated with currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. This may result in greater share price volatility. These risks are heightened in emerging and frontier markets. Investing in small- and mid-cap companies involves additional risks, such as limited liquidity and greater volatility.
Investments in fixed-income securities, including municipal securities, are subject to market, interest rate, credit, liquidity, inflation, prepayment, extension, and other risks. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in a decline in the bond’s price. High-yield fixed-income securities are considered speculative, involve greater risk of default, and tend to be more volatile than investment-grade fixed-income securities. Municipal securities may also be subject to the alternative minimum tax and legislative and regulatory risk, which is the risk that a change in the tax code could affect the value of taxable or tax-exempt interest income.
U.S. government securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the federal government as to payment of principal and interest if held to maturity. Although free from credit risk, they are subject to interest rate risk. Although Treasuries are considered free from credit risk they are subject to other types of risks. These risks include interest rate risk, which may cause the underlying value of the bond to fluctuate.
Sector investing
Sector investing can be more volatile than investments that are broadly diversified over numerous sectors of the economy and will increase a portfolio’s vulnerability to any single economic, political, or regulatory development affecting the sector. Risks associated with the Consumer Discretionary sector include, among others, apparel price deflation due to low-cost entries, high inventory levels and pressure from e-commerce players; reduction in traditional advertising dollars, increasing household debt levels that could limit consumer appetite for discretionary purchases, declining consumer acceptance of new product introductions, and geopolitical uncertainty that could affect consumer sentiment. The Energy sector may be adversely affected by changes in worldwide energy prices, exploration, production spending, government regulation, and changes in exchange rates, depletion of natural resources, and risks that arise from extreme weather conditions. Some of the risks associated with investment in the Health Care sector include competition on branded products, sales erosion due to cheaper alternatives, research and development risk, government regulations and government approval of products anticipated to enter the market. Materials industries can be significantly affected by the volatility of commodity prices, the exchange rate between foreign currency and the dollar, export/import concerns, worldwide competition, procurement and manufacturing and cost containment issues. Real estate investments have special risks, including possible illiquidity of the underlying properties, credit risk, interest rate fluctuations, and the impact of varied economic conditions.
Alternative investments
Alternative investments, such as hedge funds, private equity/private debt, and private real estate funds are speculative and involve a high degree of risk that is appropriate only for those investors who have the financial sophistication and expertise to evaluate the merits and risks of an investment in a fund and for which the fund does not represent a complete investment program. They entail significant risks that can include losses due to leveraging or other speculative investment practices, lack of liquidity, volatility of returns, restrictions on transferring interests in a fund, potential lack of diversification, absence and/or delay of information regarding valuations and pricing, complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting, and less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds. Hedge fund, private equity, private debt, and private real estate fund investing involve other material risks, including capital loss and the loss of the entire amount invested. A fund’s offering documents should be carefully reviewed prior to investing.
Private debt strategies seek to actively improve the capital structure of a company, often through debt restructuring and deleveraging measures. Such investments are subject to potential default, limited liquidity, the creditworthiness of the private company, and the infrequent availability of independent credit ratings for private companies. Investing in distressed companies is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. Because of their distressed situation, these securities may be illiquid, have low trading volumes, and be subject to substantial interest rate and credit risks. Private capital investments are complex, speculative investment vehicles not appropriate for all investors. They are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as registered investment products and engage in leverage and other aggressive investment practices. There is often limited (or even nonexistent) liquidity and a lack of transparency regarding the underlying assets.
Hedge fund strategies, such as Event Driven, Equity Hedge, Global Macro, Relative Value, Structured Credit, and Long/Short Credit, may expose investors to the risks associated with the use of short selling, leverage, derivatives, and arbitrage methodologies. Short sales involve leverage and theoretically unlimited loss potential because the market price of securities sold short may continuously increase. The use of leverage in a portfolio varies by strategy. Leverage can significantly increase return potential but create greater risk of loss. Derivatives generally have implied leverage, which can magnify volatility and may entail other risks, such as market, interest rate, credit, counterparty, and management risks. Private capital investments are complex, speculative investment vehicles not appropriate for all investors. They are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as registered investment products and engage in leverage and other aggressive investment practices. There is often limited (or even nonexistent) liquidity and a lack of transparency regarding the underlying assets.
Real assets
Real assets are subject to the risks associated with real estate, commodities, and other investments and may not be appropriate for all investors. The commodities markets, including investments in gold and other precious metals, are considered speculative, carry substantial risks, and have experienced periods of extreme volatility. Investing in a volatile and uncertain commodities market may cause a portfolio to rapidly increase or decrease in value, which may result in greater share price volatility. Investments in commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity. Products that invest in commodities may employ more complex strategies, which may expose investors to additional risks. Investment in real estate securities includes risks, such as the possible illiquidity of the underlying properties, credit risk, interest rate fluctuations, and the impact of varied economic conditions.
Disclosures
Global Investment Strategy (GIS) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (WFII). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company.
The information in this report was prepared by the Global Investment Strategy (GIS) division of WFII. Opinions represent GIS’ opinion as of the date of this report; are for general informational purposes only; and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector, or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report.
The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability or best interest analysis or recommendation; an offer to participate in any investment; or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and investment time horizon.
Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, a division within the Wells Fargo & Company enterprise, provides financial products and services through bank and brokerage affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. Brokerage products and services offered through Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC, a registered broker-dealer and nonbank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. Bank products are offered through Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.
Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services accounts with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions, or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors.
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