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Key takeaways
Wells Fargo Investment Institute believes that gradually slowing U.S. economic growth should cool inflation enough to allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates, thereby prompting gradually accelerating U.S. economic growth that leads the global economy through 2025.
The stock market rally may be challenged in the near term as uncertainties surrounding inflation and interest rates dampen investor sentiment.
We believe U.S. Large Cap Equities are best positioned to weather the shift in sentiment while an earnings recovery drives equity prices higher into 2025.
We expect the Fed to make a pivot of its own, toward lower interest rates, but officials still need more clarity from key economic indicators to gain greater confidence around disinflationary trends.
Our top five portfolio ideas
Broaden equity exposure
Broaden equity exposure during market pullbacks
In the months ahead, events such as the November elections and any delays in inflation’s renewed decline may prompt episodes of market volatility.
However, if the Fed pivots to rate cuts and the economy moves to a new and sustained growth improvement phase as we expect, pullbacks should provide opportunities to add sector breadth in U.S. Large Cap Equities. U.S. Large Caps continue to be our only favored equity asset class as we believe it is too early to add aggressively to riskier areas of the equity markets, such as U.S. Small Caps and Emerging Markets.
Generate yield
Prepare to extend duration and generate yield1
Interest rates near their highest levels since 2007 potentially offer investors some of the best opportunities in decades to generate income and support our most favorable rating on U.S. Short Term Taxable Fixed Income.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fluctuated between 3% and 5% since January 2023, significantly higher than the past decade. We believe that when longer-term yields are in the upper end of this range (4.25% to 5.00%), investors may consider locking in these attractive rates for extended periods of time by moving into longer maturities.
- Duration is a measure of interest-rate sensitivity.
Look for growth
Invest in the building blocks of growth
The drive for greater labor efficiency and government fiscal policy are fueling increased infrastructure spending that should foster stronger economic growth in the years to come. These drivers cross sectors and asset classes. We believe investors can potentially benefit from overweighting allocations to the Energy, Industrials, and Materials sectors (particularly to electrical equipment and industrial machinery) along with commodities.
The rapid growth in generative artificial intelligence (AI) could transform the economy beyond the Information Technology sector through improved productivity across industries. AI requires enormous amounts of data storage, computing power, and energy. We think data-center construction and electrical requirements to support AI will benefit select real estate investment trusts (REITs) as well as energy and industrial companies.
Diversify with alternatives
Offset macro uncertainty with alternatives
Over the longer term, alternative investments may enhance returns and hedge portfolio volatility when added to a mix of equity and fixed-income asset classes. In today’s environment, Relative Value strategies should continue to benefit from their defensive characteristics and increases in credit dispersion as the economy cools.
Event-driven securities can provide a hedge during unexpected events, while Macro strategies should profit from persistent trends, including those in commodities and currencies. Looking ahead, we believe emergent investment trends like AI and weakening valuations are likely to make for compelling opportunities for private capital.
Focus on quality
Hedge economic and geopolitical risks
Some of the greatest potential drivers for a market-moving pivot are disruptive global economic or political events. Some of our favored asset classes and sectors may help hedge these risks. Global threats have tended to benefit the U.S. dollar (notably against emerging-market weakness) and encourage overseas demand for U.S. equities and investment-grade fixed income, both principal favorites in our quality focus.
In addition, we favor commodities (including precious metals) for their potential to hedge inflation and against the risk that intensifying global conflicts may further limit raw-material supplies in the coming 12 to 18 months.
Our top five portfolio ideas
Asset class guidance
Economy
Shallow slowdown pivots to a mild recovery
In our view, a slowing economy should alleviate some inflation pressure in the coming months, setting the stage for Fed interest-rate cuts and a subsequent economic recovery.
Inflation began 2024 uncomfortably high, and we anticipate that should be enough to keep the full-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate close to 3% by year end. But over the next few months, we also expect softer consumer demand to slow inflation below this pace, until the economy regains enough momentum to rekindle some pricing pressures and another 3% CPI inflation rate in 2025.
2024 target |
2025 target |
|
---|---|---|
U.S. GDP growth2 |
2.5% |
2.1% |
U.S. CPI inflation3 |
3.0% |
3.0% |
U.S. unemployment rate4 |
4.1% |
4.0% |
Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Bloomberg. Targets for 2024 and 2025 are based on forecasts by Wells Fargo Investment Institute as of June 11, 2024, and provide a forecast direction over a tactical horizon through 2025. GDP = inflation-adjusted gross domestic product. CPI = Consumer Price Index. Forecasts, targets, and estimates are based on certain assumptions and on our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change.
|
Fixed Income
Anticipating the pivot to rate cuts
We believe the U.S. central bank is aiming to make a pivot of its own, toward lower interest rates, but awaits more clarity from key economic indicators to gain greater confidence around disinflationary trends. For now, we still expect that the Fed will be able to cut in two quarter-point increments later this year and one more time in 2025, although there is still a risk that inflation runs hotter than expected and that rate cuts will continue to be delayed this year.
We expect short-term fixed income to continue to perform well, especially as the Fed likely will cut interest rates at a slow and methodical pace, potentially allowing investors to continue to earn attractive yields — hence our most favorable guidance on this asset class. We remain neutral on the intermediate- and long-term portion of the yield curve, preferring investors maintain full allocations.
Year-end 2024 target |
Year-end 2025 target |
|
---|---|---|
Federal funds rate |
4.75% – 5.00% |
4.50% – 4.75% |
10-year U.S. Treasury yield |
4.25% – 4.75% |
4.00% – 4.50% |
30-year U.S. Treasury yield |
4.50% – 5.00% |
4.25% – 4.75% |
Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Bloomberg. Targets for 2024 and 2025 are based on forecasts by Wells Fargo Investment Institute as of June 11, 2024, and provide a forecast direction over a tactical horizon through 2025. Forecasts, targets, and estimates are based on certain assumptions and on our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change. |
Equities
Choppy price action until economy rebounds
The many frictions of the past two years to earnings growth look to be moderating. Positive economic growth should drive sales while cost control should help anchor company profit margins.
Our view is that the incipient earnings recovery we expect in 2024 will continue in 2025. This should allow stock prices to be driven primarily by earnings growth rather than price/earnings (P/E) multiple expansion.
We prefer U.S. Large Cap Equities (favorable) over U.S. Mid Cap Equities (neutral) and U.S. Small Cap Equities (most unfavorable) as well as Developed Market ex-U.S. Equities (neutral) over Emerging Market Equities (unfavorable).
Year-end 2024 target |
Year-end 2025 target |
|
---|---|---|
S&P 500 Index |
5,100 – 5,300 |
5,600 – 5,800 |
MSCI EAFE Index |
2,200 – 2,400 |
2,400 – 2,600 |
Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Bloomberg. Targets for 2024 and 2025 are based on forecasts by Wells Fargo Investment Institute as of June 11, 2024, and provide a forecast direction over a tactical horizon through 2025. Forecasts, targets, and estimates are based on certain assumptions and on our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. |
Real assets
Commodity prices show renewed upside
Commodity bull super-cycles are multiyear periods, often lasting over a decade, in which commodity prices trend higher. Though commodity prices do move significantly higher over the course of a bull super-cycle, it’s historically not a straight path higher.
Now midway through 2024, it appears that the bull super-cycle has reasserted itself as commodity prices have broadly picked up once again. We suspect that commodity prices will continue to push higher over the next six to 18 months, led by metals, both industrial and precious. Agricultural prices appear to be bouncing too, which may help solidify the rally.
Year-end 2024 target |
Year-end 2025 target |
|
---|---|---|
West Texas Intermediate crude ($ per barrel) |
$80 – $90 |
$85 – $95 |
Gold ($ per troy ounce) |
$2,300 – $2,400 |
$2,400 – $2,500 |
Sources: Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Bloomberg. Targets for 2024 and 2025 are based on forecasts by Wells Fargo Investment Institute as of June 11, 2024, and provide a forecast direction over a tactical horizon through 2025. Forecasts, targets, and estimates are based on certain assumptions and on our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change. |
Alternative investments
Diversify with defensive alternatives
The gradual economic slowdown continues to guide our preference for defensive hedge funds and private capital strategies that we believe offer diversification benefits, generate counter-cyclical returns, or offer a quality bias. Once the economy reaccelerates, we anticipate a transition to directional strategies, for their potential to track with the improved economic momentum.
Our current favored strategies and sub-strategies are more defensive and historically do not correlate to traditional stock and bond markets.
Alternative investments are not appropriate for all investors and are only open to “accredited investors” or “qualified investors” within the meaning of the U.S. securities laws. They are speculative, highly illiquid, and designed for long-term investment and not as trading vehicles.
Asset class guidance
Wondering what to expect for the remainder of 2024?
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- Our full forecast for year-end 2024 and year-end 2025
- Details on favored asset classes and sectors
- Deeper dives into market sectors
- More information to help guide your investment decisions
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Download the full reportGet more WFII research and analysisDefinitions
Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. leads the global economy through 2025.
MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of 500 widely held common stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market.
An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment.
Disclosures
Risk considerations
Forecasts and targets are based on certain assumptions and on our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change.
All investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. There can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful and meet its investment objectives. Investments fluctuate with changes in market and economic conditions and in different environments due to numerous factors, some of which may be unpredictable. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee investment returns or eliminate risk of loss. Each asset class has its own risk and return characteristics, which should be evaluated carefully before making any investment decision. The level of risk associated with a particular investment or asset class generally correlates with the level of return the investment or asset class might achieve. Some of the risks associated with the representative asset classes include:
General market risks
Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile. A stock’s value may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. International investing has additional risks including those associated with currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. These risks are heightened in emerging and frontier markets. Investing in small- and mid-cap companies involves additional risks, such as limited liquidity and greater volatility.
Investments in fixed-income securities are subject to market, interest rate, credit, liquidity, inflation, prepayment, extension, and other risks. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in a decline in the bond’s price. High-yield fixed-income securities are considered speculative, involve greater risk of default, and tend to be more volatile than investment-grade fixed-income securities.
U.S. government securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the federal government as to payment of principal and interest if held to maturity. Although free from credit risk, they are subject to interest rate risk. Although Treasuries are considered free from credit risk they are subject to other types of risks. These risks include interest rate risk, which may cause the underlying value of the bond to fluctuate.
Sector investing
Sector investing can be more volatile than investments that are broadly diversified over numerous sectors of the economy and will increase a portfolio’s vulnerability to any single economic, political, or regulatory development affecting the sector. The Energy sector may be adversely affected by changes in worldwide energy prices, exploration, production spending, government regulation, and changes in exchange rates, depletion of natural resources, and risks that arise from extreme weather conditions. There is increased risk investing in the Industrials sector. The industries within the sector can be significantly affected by general market and economic conditions, competition, technological innovation, legislation and government regulations, among other things, all of which can significantly affect a portfolio’s performance. Materials industries can be significantly affected by the volatility of commodity prices, the exchange rate between foreign currency and the dollar, export/import concerns, worldwide competition, procurement and manufacturing and cost containment issues. Real estate investments have special risks, including possible illiquidity of the underlying properties, credit risk, interest rate fluctuations, and the impact of varied economic conditions. Risks associated with the Technology sector include increased competition from domestic and international companies, unexpected changes in demand, regulatory actions, technical problems with key products, and the departure of key members of management. Technology and Internet-related stocks smaller, less-seasoned companies, tend to be more volatile than the overall market. Utilities are sensitive to changes in interest rates, and the securities within the sector can be volatile and may underperform in a slow economy.
Alternative investments
Alternative investments, such as hedge funds, private equity/private debt, and private real estate funds are speculative and involve a high degree of risk that is appropriate only for those investors who have the financial sophistication and expertise to evaluate the merits and risks of an investment in a fund and for which the fund does not represent a complete investment program. They entail significant risks that can include losses due to leveraging or other speculative investment practices, lack of liquidity, volatility of returns, restrictions on transferring interests in a fund, potential lack of diversification, absence and/or delay of information regarding valuations and pricing, complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting, and less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds. Hedge fund, private equity, private debt, and private real estate fund investing involve other material risks, including capital loss and the loss of the entire amount invested. A fund’s offering documents should be carefully reviewed prior to investing.
Hedge fund strategies, such as Event Driven, Equity Hedge, Global Macro, Relative Value, Structured Credit, and Long/Short Credit, may expose investors to the risks associated with the use of short selling, leverage, derivatives, and arbitrage methodologies. Short sales involve leverage and theoretically unlimited loss potential because the market price of securities sold short may continuously increase. The use of leverage in a portfolio varies by strategy. Leverage can significantly increase return potential but create greater risk of loss. Derivatives generally have implied leverage, which can magnify volatility and may entail other risks, such as market, interest rate, credit, counterparty, and management risks. Private capital investments are complex, speculative investment vehicles not appropriate for all investors. They are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as registered investment products and engage in leverage and other aggressive investment practices. There is often limited (or even nonexistent) liquidity and a lack of transparency regarding the underlying assets.
Real assets
Real assets are subject to the risks associated with real estate, commodities, and other investments and may not be appropriate for all investors. The commodities markets, including investments in gold and other precious metals, are considered speculative, carry substantial risks, and have experienced periods of extreme volatility. Investing in a volatile and uncertain commodities market may cause a portfolio to rapidly increase or decrease in value, which may result in greater share price volatility. Investments in commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity. Products that invest in commodities may employ more complex strategies, which may expose investors to additional risks. Investment in real estate securities includes risks, such as the possible illiquidity of the underlying properties, credit risk, interest rate fluctuations, and the impact of varied economic conditions. Other risks associated with investing in listed REITs include the use of leverage, unexpected reductions in common dividends, increases in property taxes, and the impact to listed REITs from new property development.
Disclosures
Global Investment Strategy (GIS) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (WFII). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company.
The information in this report was prepared by the Global Investment Strategy (GIS) division of WFII. Opinions represent GIS’ opinion as of the date of this report; are for general informational purposes only; and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector, or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report.
The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability or best interest analysis or recommendation; an offer to participate in any investment; or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and investment time horizon.
Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services accounts with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions, or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors.
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